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Thursday, May 31, 2012

Beware the headlines !

Down snaps seven months winning streak with worst month in 2 years....

Emotions ! That's what the headline does to you.
It is meant to hurt you and grab your attention
And make you sick in the stomach...

I mean, "worst month in 2yrs" !

It's abit like chicken little....the sky is falling...

The headline is made to make you confuse....
So that you will seek the guru's help

The drop is not, not anticipated....

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

BHP chart : a lesson not to short

Lesson 1 :
Stochs o/b reverse crossover.....
True it was an end to the wave at marked 1

But it was only a correction, back to the MA lines....

Would have taken a short position here, thinking there would be a deeper reversal....

Lesson : always let the first reversal sign go....

Lesson 2
------------
Double Doji.....reversal signal alert
Would have shorted


Lesson 3
------------
Morning star
Px out of triangular zone
Price/Stochs bearish divergence
Stochs (2nd time o/b)

BHP : update daily chart

Au:BHP

Await a reversal signal for wave 5 down...
Await termination of wave 4 (alert when Stochs reach o/b or reverse crossover)
(Stochs up/price flat).... Prices are correcting in a flat fashion.

Consolidation....

Wave 5 target : $27

Timing :
1 week for wave 4 to complete
3 weeks for wave 5 to complete ??

Weekly chart suggest 3wks
Daily chart suggest 1wk

SGX

SGX :

Monthly chart : expecting a 5th wave up
Currently maybe wave ii on 5 on the weekly chart

Watch and enter on break of $1.03 and pull back

4-6 months trade....

ASX : where to now ?

Watching ASX : Australian Stk Exchange

Looking for a 5th wave down to short.
Currently wave 4 in action.

Daily Stochs heading towards o/b
Weekly Stochs turning up from o/s

Like they say, there is a reason why a stock stays in o/s
Becasue everyone wants to stay out...

Looking to short at $31 for a 10% profit ride to $28/7

Time frame....
2 weeks for wave 4 to complete
2-3wks for wave 5 to complete

Monday, May 28, 2012

GDX vs SLV

SLV has always seems like tracking GDX

But got ahead of itself, broke away in mid 2010

I feel the time of reckoning will come

SLV will meet GDX again....

Either SLV diving down faster to meet up with falling GDX or

GDX stalling and let SLV fall to its level

Or GDX makes a jump and meet SLV in the air...

BHP : Down down down ?

6 months trade. To $20 ??

What does that mean.. . Money mgmt, trade mgmt.....etc...

Timing...patience ??

Cost to trade...opportunity cost ??

SLV : Silver ETF

SLV : monthly chart

Few possibilities here....but no clear direction.

Not shown here, but daily seems to suggest a support at $27, Stochs o/s
Tempting to take a trade from here to $35..... But in no evidence
Just a hunch.....usually get killed....So better don't

Prices could follow the trend channel down to $20 as well
But not sure.....

No evidence .....stay out....wait for market to show hand

When should I come back to take a look ?

End of next week ?.....

Santos : Dry trade

Could this be a temporary bottom or termination of a down wave ?

Weekly chart's Stochs at o/s.

Daily chart, price/Stochs bullish divergence...

Should take a trade here to $13.00 to $13.50 ?

According to my statistics , trading a reversal has been poor record.....

Prices have to work through the moving averages....maybe a tough call...

Tempting ? But not sure ?

Pun ? .....3weeks.....

TAH : Dry trade 2

Is this the right count ?

Is wave 4 complete ?

$2.85 must hold.

Tabcorp : TAH

Dry trade :
To test this 5th wave Elliot wave buy.

Entry at $2.95, exit $3.15
Stop $2.88

Timing ? : weekly chart !
One bar = 1 week
Wave 1 = 3 weeks
Wave 5 = 3 weeks

Let's give it 3 weeks.
Say 21st June 2012

How often then should I monitor it ?
Weekly ?
Bi weekly ?
Fortnightly ?
Daily ?

Friday, May 25, 2012

SLV : no trade...

. Stochs is o/s
. Strong support at $27
. Resistance $30/$34
. Will it break support ? And go further down ? To where ? $18 ? When ?
. Rebound now at support ? How far ? $34 ? No supporting evidence ?

EWA : more down side....

. Broke out/down of triangular consolidation
. First leg of downtrend....
. Wait to short .....
.

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

AudUsd - 10mins chart - ABC corrective wave

Open 1.0348

This is what I see, this is what I trade !

AudUsd : 10mins chart

AudUsd has made a bearish 5 wave leg.
Anticipating a corrective wave to 1.036. 50% retracement.

Although it has not broken our of the triangular channel.
May test bottom of channel ?