Friday, October 7, 2011
Friday, September 30, 2011
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
TiVo, Inc. (TIVO)i
TiVo, Inc. (TIVO)i:
Much to ask for here at TiVO.
$11 so far has been the line in the sand.
A resistance line that has worked well for many a bear so far.
But will this time be any different ??
Working on a Wave 5 bullish structure here with the zig-zag breakdown in prices
from $11.25 to $9.75 a complete Wave 4 which bisects the Wave 3 at 50% Fib level.
If Wave 4 then bisects the entire 5 waves by half,
then a price target of $12.50 is projected for TIVO.
Much to ask for here at TiVO.
$11 so far has been the line in the sand.
A resistance line that has worked well for many a bear so far.
But will this time be any different ??
Working on a Wave 5 bullish structure here with the zig-zag breakdown in prices
from $11.25 to $9.75 a complete Wave 4 which bisects the Wave 3 at 50% Fib level.
If Wave 4 then bisects the entire 5 waves by half,
then a price target of $12.50 is projected for TIVO.
via StockCharts.com
Monday, September 26, 2011
BHP($BHP) : On the 200days Weekly MA
Will it provide a solid enough support for a bounce ?
Or slice through it.
Wile longer term moving averages works as a support in an uptrend
and thus the buy on dip trading theory
However, it doest work if it's on the way down as has been shown again and again
recently.
Given the bearishness in metals, it probably might just give way.
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Dow Jones Futures Chart (10mins) : Operation Twist or Twisted ??
Not much change in the 5 hr chart.
Still within trend channel.
Today we shall see it's Operation Twist or Twisted ??
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Dow Futures 5hr chart : Precarious as she goes.
Major resistance 11,450
Still within Trend channel.
What did the Bull say in the Bear Market Rally ?
In the Asian session on the Dow Futures, prices bounces off the 38.2% fib level.
Currently working in a bullish count for higher prices.
Monday, September 19, 2011
FMCN($FMCN) : Focus Media Holdings
Focus Media Holdings Ltd. (FMCN):
Focus Media Holding Limited (Focus Media) operates an interactive digital media network. The Company offers interactive digital media platforms aimed at Chinese consumers. As of March 31, 2011, Focus Media’s out-of-home interactive digital media network had approximately 170,000 liquid crystal display (LCD) displays in about 90,500 commercial buildings that covered more than 90 cities; 378,000 in-elevator poster and digital picture frames in residential buildings that covered more than 30 cities; approximately 49,000 LCD displays in more than 2,700 hypermarkets, supermarkets and convenience stores, and approximately 1,700 movie screens in about 280 movie theaters throughout China. On July 30, 2010, the Company sold its remaining 62% interest in Allyes Information Technology Company Limited (Allyes) to Silver Lake Management, L.L.C. (Silver Lake). On January 13, 2011, it purchased a 15% interest in VisionChina Media Inc. (VisionChina Media).
Focus Media Holding Limited (Focus Media) operates an interactive digital media network. The Company offers interactive digital media platforms aimed at Chinese consumers. As of March 31, 2011, Focus Media’s out-of-home interactive digital media network had approximately 170,000 liquid crystal display (LCD) displays in about 90,500 commercial buildings that covered more than 90 cities; 378,000 in-elevator poster and digital picture frames in residential buildings that covered more than 30 cities; approximately 49,000 LCD displays in more than 2,700 hypermarkets, supermarkets and convenience stores, and approximately 1,700 movie screens in about 280 movie theaters throughout China. On July 30, 2010, the Company sold its remaining 62% interest in Allyes Information Technology Company Limited (Allyes) to Silver Lake Management, L.L.C. (Silver Lake). On January 13, 2011, it purchased a 15% interest in VisionChina Media Inc. (VisionChina Media).
via StockCharts.com
SPY($SPY) : Wave 4 completed. Wave 5 in progress ??
500 SPDRs (SPY)W:
May 2011 High to August 2011 Low, SPY has traced a a-b-c zig-zag pattern.
A corrective wave.
Having said that some technalysts are also suggesting a Wedge formation price action from Aug
low to now will bring prices lower bearing out what the fundamentalists are saying as well.
Nothing at the moment, in fact everything at the moment is pointing the SPY compass south.
I like to however, throw out a contrarian alternative technical view. Working on an Elliot count that suggest Wave 4 termination in Aug2011 when it hit the 200MA on the weekly chart. Terminating with it the corrective Wave 4's "a-b-c" wave whose declined started in May2011, the peak of Wave 3.
Incidentally, the Wave 4 in this scenario besides intersecting with the 200days weekly MA, it also coincide with the 38.2% fib level.
Which also coincide with the Europes's EWG[Germany's DAX] and Asia's EWY [Korean's KOSPI] 38.2% correction just few days ago.
If this is the case we are still in the bull leg of the Bigger BEAR rally.
May 2011 High to August 2011 Low, SPY has traced a a-b-c zig-zag pattern.
A corrective wave.
Having said that some technalysts are also suggesting a Wedge formation price action from Aug
low to now will bring prices lower bearing out what the fundamentalists are saying as well.
Nothing at the moment, in fact everything at the moment is pointing the SPY compass south.
I like to however, throw out a contrarian alternative technical view. Working on an Elliot count that suggest Wave 4 termination in Aug2011 when it hit the 200MA on the weekly chart. Terminating with it the corrective Wave 4's "a-b-c" wave whose declined started in May2011, the peak of Wave 3.
Incidentally, the Wave 4 in this scenario besides intersecting with the 200days weekly MA, it also coincide with the 38.2% fib level.
Which also coincide with the Europes's EWG[Germany's DAX] and Asia's EWY [Korean's KOSPI] 38.2% correction just few days ago.
If this is the case we are still in the bull leg of the Bigger BEAR rally.
via StockCharts.com
Sunday, September 18, 2011
SODA($SODA) : Cup & Handle ? :
SodaStream International Ltd. (SODA):
SODA : Bullish
Price Action portraying a bullish Cup & Handle formation.
Prices hovering above median pices.
Fast Stochs showing some corrective behaiviour.
Slow Stochs sloping upwards.
via StockCharts.com
SODA : Bullish
Price Action portraying a bullish Cup & Handle formation.
Prices hovering above median pices.
Fast Stochs showing some corrective behaiviour.
Slow Stochs sloping upwards.
via StockCharts.com
SINA($SINA) : Technical Poetry In Motion
. In what looks like a Price/MACD Divergence.
. Fast Stochs bottomed but Slow Stochs is only mid way.
. Immediate wave has reached an end, but
. The larger wave Is only half way done.
Saturday, September 17, 2011
Friday, September 16, 2011
VXX($VXX) : Wave 5 Peak + Bearish Divergence !
. Wave 5 topped.
. Price/Stochs Bearish Divergence
Thursday, September 15, 2011
QQQ($QQQ) : Triangle breakout : Target $59
Prices has compacted into an upward diverging triangle.
Prices has broken out of the $55 Resistance
Prices at 200MA at the moment.
Prices projected to hit $59
Stochastics, Fast and Slow, still has room for bull to roam !
Prices has broken out of the $55 Resistance
Prices at 200MA at the moment.
Prices projected to hit $59
Stochastics, Fast and Slow, still has room for bull to roam !
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
DIA($DIA) : 60Minute chart : Keeping a bullish count ......fingers crossed..
Dow Jones Futures : 60 minute chart Keeping to the bullish count. Prices has broken higher, out of a triangular consolidation.
Prices doing a bit of retracement :
50% = 11,115
61.8 % = 11,080
All fail Switch is at 10,900. Break down through that, is another ball game.
For now, working on the Bullish count.
Near term, it has a big show to fill, and alot to ask for but stay optimistic and opportunistic.
For we are after all on the side that has the ball !
Prices doing a bit of retracement :
50% = 11,115
61.8 % = 11,080
All fail Switch is at 10,900. Break down through that, is another ball game.
For now, working on the Bullish count.
Near term, it has a big show to fill, and alot to ask for but stay optimistic and opportunistic.
For we are after all on the side that has the ball !
 |
| Dow Jones Futures : 60minutes chart |
SINA($SINA) : Weekly chart : Wave 5 : $140+ target ??
sina.com (SINA)i:
. Fast Stochs : Breakout of Triangular consolidation, syptomatic of corrective Price action and wave structure.
. Slow Stochatics is yet to get out of the gate but its pretty charged up looking at the RPM on Fast Stochs.
Conclusion :
Looking at Wave iii of 5 to take effect.
Potential target $140 and beyond !
via StockCharts.com
Keeping a weekly Perspective on SINA.
. Trade View : Bullish
. If I can be abit presumptious :
i. a double bottom on Slow Stochastics.
ii. MACD cutting upwards.
. Fast Stochs : Breakout of Triangular consolidation, syptomatic of corrective Price action and wave structure.
. Wave 4 Completed at $80
. resistance at $120. Slow Stochatics is yet to get out of the gate but its pretty charged up looking at the RPM on Fast Stochs.
Looking at Wave iii of 5 to take effect.
Potential target $140 and beyond !
via StockCharts.com
QQQ($QQQ) : Lucky Bull on the 4th attempt ??!
PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQ)i:
$55 is the do or die point. Its the last stronghold of the bears. This will be the 4th Bull attempt to break
the stronghold. The previous 3 has failed in as many weeks.
Several things are on the side of the Bulls this time, prices are above the triple moving averages band for one.
Stochastics a reflection of the wave structure is looking bullish and gaining monentum.
Fast Stochs's Double bottom just at the 5o mark and pointing up !
The compact upward diverging Triangle of prices formed by the horizontal $55 and the apex of $50 on 22 August
indicates Pent Up Demand, energy coiled and waiting for release !
Its do or die. And if it dies at least we know it has given a good fight !
No consolation but no pain no gain, no guts no glory !
$55 is the do or die point. Its the last stronghold of the bears. This will be the 4th Bull attempt to break
the stronghold. The previous 3 has failed in as many weeks.
Several things are on the side of the Bulls this time, prices are above the triple moving averages band for one.
Stochastics a reflection of the wave structure is looking bullish and gaining monentum.
Fast Stochs's Double bottom just at the 5o mark and pointing up !
The compact upward diverging Triangle of prices formed by the horizontal $55 and the apex of $50 on 22 August
indicates Pent Up Demand, energy coiled and waiting for release !
Its do or die. And if it dies at least we know it has given a good fight !
No consolation but no pain no gain, no guts no glory !
via StockCharts.com
BAC($BAC) : Bullish Triangle Chart Update (ii)
Bank Of America Corp. (BAC)ii:
Support : $7.00
Pattern : Bullish Triangle pending breakout.
Indicators : i Price/Stochastics Bullish Divergence.
ii. Slow and Fast Stochs diverging.
[Longer term up, Immediate term down : Correction in progress.]
Slow Stochs holding steady at 36 over a 25 days observation period.
Fast stochs (14days) which is also the start of "A" is pointing southward indicating a down wave.
Possibly corective wave within the larger UP wave.
via StockCharts.com
Support : $7.00
Pattern : Bullish Triangle pending breakout.
Indicators : i Price/Stochastics Bullish Divergence.
ii. Slow and Fast Stochs diverging.
[Longer term up, Immediate term down : Correction in progress.]
Slow Stochs holding steady at 36 over a 25 days observation period.
Fast stochs (14days) which is also the start of "A" is pointing southward indicating a down wave.
Possibly corective wave within the larger UP wave.
via StockCharts.com
ACOR[$ACOR] : Wave 5, Chart Update (iii)
ACOR Chart Update(iii)
Acor on the weekly chart is tracking a downward 5th wave.
The below chart tracks Acor path in the last 10 days.
This ACOR Wave 4 Sell setup was soptted on 5Sept2011 based on :
1. Bearish Triangle Wedge
(Wave 4)
2. Elliot Wave Count.
Acor on the weekly chart is tracking a downward 5th wave.
The below chart tracks Acor path in the last 10 days.
This ACOR Wave 4 Sell setup was soptted on 5Sept2011 based on :
1. Bearish Triangle Wedge
(Wave 4)
2. Elliot Wave Count.
 |
| 5Sept 2011 |
 |
| 9 Sept 2011 |
 |
| 14 Sept 2011 |
$DIA : Bear Trap on 60min & Daily P&F chart with Elliot Wave Annotation.
$DIA :
1. Bear Trap on 60min
2. Daily P&F chart with Elliot Wave Annotation.
1. Bear Trap on 60min
2. Daily P&F chart with Elliot Wave Annotation.
$QQQ : A Rally in the making ?? Jump into the band wagon b4 it takes off.....
NASDAQ, QQQ, seems poise for a take off. Slow and fast Stochs, is not in the overbought region yet, but in an area suggesting some bullishness might be in current price action.
From August 22 low, which is also a significant low on Dow on that date. QQQ's highs and lows have outlined 2 triangular diverging upward lines. And only yesterday, prices has broken out of a congested, tightly packed triangle.
If all's good and some bullish momentum enters the market, which I suspect, the usual case of jumping into the band wagon effect will take place and push QQQ into the upper limit of 50s or even low 60s on the QQQ.
A rally next week ? If I can be as bold to suggest that !?
$DIA : Any Bulls out there ??
At the moment, 50% Fib level seems to be holding. If it does, it would signify the terminating of Wave 2, a corrective a-b-c wave from previous high.
Next Fib Level support, is at 61.8% or 10,840. And the all fail switch is at 10,700 of course. Breaks that, all bullish bets are off.
Keeping an eye on DAX at the moment as well. An indicator of Europe's sentiment which increasingly has a psychological bearing on the Dow these days.
I take the DAX, the Germany's Stock Index, to be the yardstick and the sum of all thinking and decisions out of the EuroZone or otherwise.
DAX, as per last post is sitting on 38.2% Fib retracement and also a significant support zone.
Going out on a super limb here to be a contrarian bull among the bears everywhere. I have no fundamental to back me up just a gut feel that a rally could be in the offing sooner than later.
Do feel free to leave me a note of suport or resistance to this post .
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
What Can the 4 lows in Aug/Sept Stochastics tell us ?
i. Aug 8
ii. Aug 22
iii. Sept 6
iv. Sept 12
Since the Debt ceiling saga and S&P Downgrade of US debt, $SPY has logged in a first low on Aug 8 2011 based on closing price.
And subsequent higher lows on Aug22, Sept 6 and Sept 12.The resultant Stochastics is even more pronouced ! The first 2 lows suggest a double bottom with the required amplitude on the Stochastics.
The next 2 lows in September, on Sept 6 and Sept 12, although volatile with wide amplitude between peak and trough on the SPY chart, does not correlate with the narrower amplitude on the Stochastics.
Suggesting that the September waves and lows although with wide swings and mistaken as a major wave in itself is but part of a upward continuing sub waves beginning on Aug 22 labelled "2".
At the moment : prices are Triangulated into a narrowing range. 115 & 118, the lower and upper limits, support and resistance. Above 118 will imply a breakout with a view for 126 & 127 the 200days MA on the daily chart.
Furthermore, September Stochastics (i & ii) is sitting on August Stochs peak on 18Aug.
Turning resistance into support right at the mid level of 49.14 Stochs reading, which is also the previous support on 18 July 2011.
So we have a lot of significant points here.
. 4 Bottoms in Aug and Sept.
. Prices is triangulating primed for a breakout
. Sept Stochs low is sitting in August Stochs peak.
. Stochs priming for a breakthrough above the mid-level which also is the
July 18 Support.
Anticipating further upside on the Index at least.........
$EWG : Germany DAX Index at 38.2% Fib level !!
Europe is in a messy mess ! Thats an understatement. But wait a minute, take a look atthe DAX chart, Germany's Stock Index.
It is sitting on the 38.2% fibo level. Right where the previous Wave b ended and a critical support level.
Its a critical juncture !
And boy, look at the O/S signal on the Weekly slow and fast stoch. Stochs somehow also correlate to the terminating of an Elliot wave and reversal of a trend.
Considerations :
1. Will the DAX bounce off from here and take off with the Dow or
2. Will the Dow follow the footsteps
of the European DAX counterpart lower to the next support level ??
Monday, September 12, 2011
Turning points : Reversal of Fortune : $GLD, $SLV, $DIA
....as Gold (indicator of danger) goes into hiding,
Dow (Indicator of Entrprenuerism) comes out to play...
Firstly, apologies, the chart is a mayhem of lines and colours just like the market at the moment, but if you bear with me I like to show the relationship of Gold, Silver and Equites, namely Dow Jones Index($DIA).
Firstly, apologies, the chart is a mayhem of lines and colours just like the market at the moment, but if you bear with me I like to show the relationship of Gold, Silver and Equites, namely Dow Jones Index($DIA).
The green line symbolizes the general downward trajectory of Dow since Silver and Dow Peaked and tanked in May, together with Osama Bin Laden's assassination.
The blue line is gold with a exponential push higher in July where risk is at it's highest, US and Europe financials at its most dangerous.
Silver not lined or colored, had peaked in May. Now, Five months later, Gold is seen to have peaked. Silver has since gone into a corrective phase. The current peak of the correctIve rebound in Silver coincides with the Wave 5 peak in Gold. The danger is over or is perceived over. Whatever it is, Gold, no longer needs to play the "Store of Value" in bad times. The Hedger in bad times. It can now take a rest.
Generally speaking, filtering out the noise in the charts reflective of the market, as Dow heads south in a corrective a-b-c zigzag Elliot wave , Gold heads North in a final exponential wave 5 push which is conform with bearish divergence on it's daily chart. ( ck out previous post )
But take a look at what's happening now, with Dow at it's most volatile with plus minus, couple of hundred points, any weaker soul would have thrown up, Gold has been turning south, seems like it has put in a wave 5 top and has peaked.
Reversal of Fortune ?? Could Gold's price action foreshadow Dow subsequent and coming rally ? Logically it should. The smart money is positioning now for the coming rally in Equities. Withdrawing from the "Gold Bank" to invest in dividend paying Equities where real and tangible stuffs happen
So at least for now, expect a reversal of gold and Dow chart......
The blue line is gold with a exponential push higher in July where risk is at it's highest, US and Europe financials at its most dangerous.
Silver not lined or colored, had peaked in May. Now, Five months later, Gold is seen to have peaked. Silver has since gone into a corrective phase. The current peak of the correctIve rebound in Silver coincides with the Wave 5 peak in Gold. The danger is over or is perceived over. Whatever it is, Gold, no longer needs to play the "Store of Value" in bad times. The Hedger in bad times. It can now take a rest.
Generally speaking, filtering out the noise in the charts reflective of the market, as Dow heads south in a corrective a-b-c zigzag Elliot wave , Gold heads North in a final exponential wave 5 push which is conform with bearish divergence on it's daily chart. ( ck out previous post )
But take a look at what's happening now, with Dow at it's most volatile with plus minus, couple of hundred points, any weaker soul would have thrown up, Gold has been turning south, seems like it has put in a wave 5 top and has peaked.
Reversal of Fortune ?? Could Gold's price action foreshadow Dow subsequent and coming rally ? Logically it should. The smart money is positioning now for the coming rally in Equities. Withdrawing from the "Gold Bank" to invest in dividend paying Equities where real and tangible stuffs happen
So at least for now, expect a reversal of gold and Dow chart......
$DIA : Elliot Wave Count Since Subprime 2008 crisis
The Subprime induced and created Wave A is 5 wave in nature, the subsequent B has a 3 waves structure. Its my opinion that Wave B is yet to be completed with a final throes of wave v, terminating the corrective Wave B.
From then on out, whether by economist fundamentals outlook and analysis or Elliot Wave, or Dent Jr works on demographics, its not pretty. It probably will not do the suicide plunge again, now that the politicians are more weary and coordinated. And what with the introduction of Tobin Tax, Carbon currency, and debt to repay....we will moat likely witness a complex sideways price action towards 2020.
$DIA : Catching A Falling Knife or a Falling Star ??
Scenario 2 : Catching A Falling Star !
Unless you are a 5 minute to a day trader, its better to respect 11,600 and 10,700 and let the bull and bears fight over this "no man's" territory. Conserve your ammo and let it rip once it cross either of the posts, resistance or support.
$DIA : Since May2011. Political and economic.
May
(down)
---------
Starting with the Greece Sovereign debt mess and the resultant mess in Europe as well. Incidentally we have also the British Rotal Wedding and the assassination of Terror Leader number 1, Osama Bin Laden. Oil tanked. Silver went into a nose dive.
June
(up)
------
Greece passed the austerity measures albeit temporarily admidst protest and howling by the people for the mess the politicians created, thanks in large part to the Euro, whose members are unequally yoked !
However, it was still good news, market rallied !
July
(Down)
----------
The contagion effect seems to spread to America. Bad things don't come singly. Financial market is really nervous and fragile any rally is short lived. July in America witness the clowning of the congress circus and the white house ring master. S&P wasn't much impressed, brought the curtain down or risk it's own credibility, downgraded US debt a notch still good by any standard but unacceptable nevertheless for the King, market dived.
August/September
(Dwn/Sideways)
------------------------
Has been thrawling within a 1000 pts fly zone with 11,000 more or less the pivot, while the debate continues about jobs, growth and debt admits more dire problem in Europe. Its pretty bleak but bulls and bears are tugging each other.
G7 finance ministers has met over the 9/11 10th anniversary weekend.
Obama has a $400+ billion economic plan.
(Obama : The Better Hobson's Choice)
At this stage a plan is better than no plan. In fact the GFC has derailed this "Infrastructure" plan. It was the platform of Obama's campaign, he is but just coming back to it, the Infrastructure I-Bank is waiting to be ignited so is the $1Trillion from Chinese Sovereign fund. The impasse is not so much whether It will work, but what it's implication are on America's sovereignty even if it's just financial sovereignty. Which actually has been eroding. Just consider this, if an emerging African nation like Nigeria, can start considering Chinese Yuan as their valid trading and global currency and is going to convert 10% of their national foreign reserves to Chinese Yuan, it's a different era and a different modus operandi.
All in All, with respect to 11,600(resistance) and 10,700(support) I call for a bottom and vote with Obama's Infrastructure plan. Look the banks have called your loans and now taking back jobs, the next rescue if its just for numbers sake would have to be Infrastructure which GFC has just but temporarily derailed it. Or just look at Europe, for all the hype about the domino effect if the Sovereign debt crisis, it is but a huge Infrastructure play.
This is a Wave 4 Buy on the Weekly Chart !
$GLD, $SLV & $UUP : Update
Gold and Silver is showing signs of Price/Stochs Bearish divergences typical of an Elliot Wave 5 Price Action.
Critical Support Level :
$177 for $GLD.
$ 40 for $SLV.
Gold and Silver has been a bullish hedged against the world on crisis mode. Well, namely US and Europe finances. Their stalling or potential reversal will signal also the reversal in the equity markets.
US$ index has broken out of a long term downtrend. Another major signal in the financial market.
Can US equity and US$ rise together ? And Gold reversed at the same time ?
This scenario call for faith to return to the United States of America, both in her corporates, finances, equities and the demand of the US$ as a result.
Private Equity firms are trying to cashed out as well with the looming Carlye Group recent annoucement of its going IPO which it may be positioning itself for the coming infrastructure play with the introduction of the I-Bank. "I" for Infrastructure. And if all these are to happen, and Obama has his way, a weak equity market does not lend to the cause. Therefore Equity Market must rise and sentiment improve.
Central Bankers may be coordinating with Bernanke the chief of US Fed Reserve to introduce long term liquidity to fund Global Infrastructure projects to boost demand globally. And though the economy may go sideways in the next decade, at least the official macro economic indicators will look pretty while the avergae joe in the street may not be any better off.
ACOR : Chart Update .
5 Sept 2011
9 Sept 2011
The ACOR price action further confirms my view that the market is reaching a critical juncture,
albeit a temporary bottom and a subsequent reversal.
ACOR price action reflects 5 wave of Elliot primary wave count and as suggested a Wave 4 sell on 5 September for Wave 5 Price action. Whether it has put in a bottom is yet to be seen, as such we can only deduce, Wave 5 is still in progress till it terminates with a bottom reversal.
Previous Post :
http://chart2trade.blogspot.com/2011/09/acor-wave-4-sell.html
9 Sept 2011
The ACOR price action further confirms my view that the market is reaching a critical juncture,
albeit a temporary bottom and a subsequent reversal.
ACOR price action reflects 5 wave of Elliot primary wave count and as suggested a Wave 4 sell on 5 September for Wave 5 Price action. Whether it has put in a bottom is yet to be seen, as such we can only deduce, Wave 5 is still in progress till it terminates with a bottom reversal.
Previous Post :
http://chart2trade.blogspot.com/2011/09/acor-wave-4-sell.html
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