AudUsd : 10mins chart

Using my trading methodology :
. 10 mins chart
. Prices goes under Moving averages crossover (1st point)
. Prices retest moving averages but fail to break. (2nd point)
. Prices break 1.0440 support on 10 mins chart.
. Prices tracking "water falling" moving averages downwards.
. Stochastics scrapping bottom, indicating over sold condition on 10mins chart
. Don't chicken out as usual....
. Press on towards target in a bigger time frame....

AudUsd : Target Changed !

Sold AudUsd at 1.04477

Looking for a corrective wave to point of wave 4.
Starting of a 5 wave decline.

Au: CSL

A friend had invited me to comment in CSL.
He was suggesting a top and a reversal and a resistance at this level.
Weekly Stochastics does show extreme o/b
So a reversal does seems imminent,

My comment was, yes, I would be looking for a reversal but watch the trend channel
Which is still going upwards.
And notice the moving averages...any down side would be cushioned
By these moving averages band...
Don't expect any sharp drop, if any to $36
Anytime soon.

If anything it might break upwards after the triangle has consolidated
To $42 (??)

IBM still technically in an Uptrend

Trend Channel ($220-$190)

EWG : German Index ETF : mid-way into a long term triangle pattern

Have a feeling Dax or its EWG , etf equivalent
Is tracing out a long, long term a-b-c-d-e consolidation pattern.
If a-b-c takes about 4-5yrs
If d-e and subsequent up turn stretches out another 4-6 years
Means, Dax will be ticking sideways for a good part of this decade.

Currently, I think, EWG is in a down turn to complete Wave C at 16
Immediate outlook may suggest a bit of upside then down to 16

An August peak in Dow of 14000 ??

Further downside (wave 5 of C)
Will there be a short term push down to 122, the previous resistance turns support
and potentially the end of wave 4 of 5

Before the final 5th of the 5th wave
Taking a 50/50 wave 4 to wave 5
If wave 4 ends at 126......then wave 5 will end at about 140 (126-112=14;+126=140)

TimeFrame :
If wave 1 to 4 = 6 months; and is 2/3 of total 5 waves
Then wave 5 will be 3 months (from June)
Therefore a peak in the Dow in August.

FXA - Part 2

FXA : Aud ETF

Could FXA be in a Wave "c" down to form "A" of A-B-C
Assuming wave "a" takes 4 months and Wave C is 1.613 of A
Then Wave "c" should take 6-7 months
To 80-70 level
ie, by Oct 2012 to Dec2012, FXA could reach 70-80

Technical analysis invalid at 111.

Technical argument for bearishness
. 5 waves of Wave 5
. Price Stochs bearish divergence

BHP : Target $25-$20 in 5.8 months

BHP : Target $25-$20 in 5.8 months
This is BHP on monthly chart

If this is the 1st 5wave down of A
Current 4th wave say, has completed 2/3 of the whole wave
And it has taken 13 months to do it

Therefore, the 5th wave of A should take about 5-6 months
If 5th is the most rapid, it could even be 4-6months
4 months from now is August
6 months is October.