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Wednesday, September 7, 2011

$DIA : Post "No Jobs Labour Day Weekend"



Have a look at the 30minute Dow Jones Futures Chart powered by Forexpros.com.
The bulls came back with a vengeance after the No Jobs Labour Day Weekend.
From a low of 10,920 it hit a high of 11,400 in 3 trading days.
We are however, far from out of the woods. 11,700 has to be breached on the upside before
we can declare any victory to the bull.

It looks like the Bull is keeping its head low, coming to live when all is atthe bleakest. However, even the labour day report was suspect to start with, according to a Marketwatch article, as it includes 45,000 "unemployed" Verizon strikers who has since become employed again.

Expect some retracement from 11,400. Everything else hinges on the President's speech and
more importantly what the market make out of it and wants to go from here. Look, just a couple days ago, it was like dismal dismal dismal and downright depressing and suddenly the bulls spring back to life.

And as somebody said, gioven the bleak, distressing and depressing outlook, most of the 19,000 stocks universe covered by the pros does not have a sell recommendation. While some remain skeptical and cynical about the recommendation anyway, it still say something.

Personally, I would love to think there is another leg up from here, although how I do not know given all the black news coming out. Europe is on fire, US is trying to smother its fire, China trying not to catch it. Asia is just plain weary.

Worst case scenario, like all good tactician and strategist has one, its that the Post Labour Day Bull is just that "Bull". A "Bull" Trap. An Elliot Corrective Wave or what would be name as Wave 4 Sell to complete WAVE A of the Intermediate Degree.

Or it could be a prolonged complex wave or a gushing Wave 5.

Ya I know thats what gives elliot the bad name. So many Ifs, so many starting and ending point. Even the Elliot Wave People got the Gold thing wrong. By being too bearish prematurely.

For now, lets hope that the market will be encouraged by the President today and let the Bull come out to party before All Hell Break Lose. As I also believe the AHBL is yet to come. But not at 11,000. Not high enough a precipice to fall from. I think 18,000 would be a good round number. ........

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