http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/3/28/asx/markets-spectator-shifting-global-goalposts?utm_source=exact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=246645&utm_campaign=kgb&modapt=
Friday, March 29, 2013
$aud sub parity vs $US
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/3/28/asx/markets-spectator-shifting-global-goalposts?utm_source=exact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=246645&utm_campaign=kgb&modapt=
Thursday, March 28, 2013
The 10yr $US cycle
But I personally think, US$ is long from dead, actually it's alive and kicking well.
http://e.businessinsider.com/4dd9e25e52366d35632b818fx2kt.bou/UUCLfPgFjn2NgJHQBa2ad
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
Afghanistan : Mission over so also the market !
To send the troops home is to say the mission is over.
The threat is over.
Whatever needs to be done is done.
This to me weirdly signifies a market top.
And the charts does says it too.
Look at Dow, look at Nikkei...Look at Footsie.
Combine that with US$ bullishness....and a toppish Dow
Gold is a side story...a sidekick that will be kicked out.
Mission over means threat is over means no danger means no risk
No risk means no use for Gold
Plus US$ strength will give confidence to the market
No need for gold
And US oil will pare the treasury debt down.
US oil production is a game changer in US$ economics
Scenery is changing.
From $US dollar bear to $US dollar Bull
US housing recovery -> foreign investment ?
This article is supporting US$ bullish case.
US imports less oil now comped to before
US now produce more oil than the middle east.
Now US becomes a variable in Oil production (supply)
While at the same time controls the US$
And currencies are relative to one another
If both are weak, the less weak is actually stronger than the weaker,
In this case US$ is stronger than Euro.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/03/22/americas-next-boom.aspx
Saturday, March 23, 2013
FXB : British Pound ETF : Bullish play
With prices in consolidation.
What a built up ! I would think ...
Resistance of $150 has become support.
In an ascending triangle on rising volume.
Target $154.
April call strike $150 is $1.60
April call strike $151 is $1.05 (preferred)
Other commentary
DIA wave 5 up.
Dollar down, other currencies up paired to it.
Confidence : Hi
Probability : Hi
Friday, March 22, 2013
NKE option trade brief
Nike option paper trade is a winner !
April Call Option strike 55 was $1.34 when price was $54
Now it's $4.50, that's 3 times.
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
Monday, March 18, 2013
Friday, March 15, 2013
World gold council
It speaks of reduction of US$ and Euro in central banks' portfolio.
And an increase in non-traditional assets.
Including Gold and Aud$
If that's the case, ask yourself, is the central banks going to buy them expensive or cheap ?
If cheap then Aud and gold has more downside to go.
Nike : NKE (paper trade, option)
Trade set up : Wave 5
Target $55 to $60
April Option
Call(buy) : $1.34 otm
Put(Write) : $0.62 (hold till expiration)
EurJpy : Triangular consolidation : 1 hourly chart
Broke out....
Resistance turns support....
Consolidating above support line.....
Thursday, March 14, 2013
EurJpy : 2hrly chart : upward potential....
Consolidating nicely !
Anticipating a breakout....
Watching the setup...
GbpUsd : Cup & Handle
Took profit at 1.5010 & 1.5020
More upside in the long term......
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
AudNzd : 4 hrly : Perfect 5 wave traced !
For now work way down to 1.2450
Tuesday, March 12, 2013
AudNzd : Wave v of C
Notice the bearish divergence of Wave 3
Higher highs in price but lower highs in Stochastics
Monday, March 11, 2013
Sunday, March 10, 2013
Listen to this : 3 most dangerous market events.
Dow Jones, Spy is extended, so is UsdJpy due for a correction.
Having said that AudUsd, NzdUsd may yet break the Head and shoulder neckline....
Prepare for an imminent fall.
Saturday, March 9, 2013
Friday, March 8, 2013
Sunday, March 3, 2013
Gold : back to $75-$80 (36months)
Gold as it is has lose a lot of its shine since 2011 high at $225.
It will continue downward to about I suspect where the 4th wave begins and that is about $75-$80
It may have a bounce from here if not abit lower first then test key levels of $150,$165 and $195.
It may be a good time to manage the portfolio at those stages, maybe offload some to mitigate the risk.
AudUsd : neutral bouyancy : upside biased.
Reserve Bank documents released late last week under a Freedom of Information request from Bloomberg show that the central bank thought the currency was about 5 per cent overvalued when it was 5 per cent higher than it is now.
It was a note prepared for the September RBA board meeting, marked "confidential" and headed "Is the Australian Dollar Overvalued?" The answer: "The staff's preferred model … suggests that the exchange rate is around 5 per cent overvalued".
In August and September last year the dollar traded up to US105.8 cents. Since then the dollar has fallen to US102 cents and the iron ore spot price has rallied 70 per cent, so it's unlikely that the Reserve Bank now thinks the dollar is overvalued.
It was a note prepared for the September RBA board meeting, marked "confidential" and headed "Is the Australian Dollar Overvalued?" The answer: "The staff's preferred model … suggests that the exchange rate is around 5 per cent overvalued".
In August and September last year the dollar traded up to US105.8 cents. Since then the dollar has fallen to US102 cents and the iron ore spot price has rallied 70 per cent, so it's unlikely that the Reserve Bank now thinks the dollar is overvalued.
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